CAM | Market Update | May 2023
- May 10, 2023
- Posted by:AssetManagement
- Categories:crypto market update, cryptocurrencies
In the first quarter of 2023, Bitcoin showed a strong performance despite a slight decline. BTC was able to close above USD 30,000 a few times. Profit-taking in the second half of April led the BTC price to a level around USD 28k. Ethereum, the second largest protocol, successfully completed a major upgrade called Shapella, which enables Ether de-staking. Next steps are to scale the blockchain using sharding. Regarding traditional asset classes and the economy, there are different opinions. Declining inflation offers a confident outlook. However, there are warnings regarding maturing real estate loans in the commercial sector and a possible banking crisis, which pose risks to the economy.
Important regulatory developments for digital assets are also in focus. SEC Chief Gensler's statements have sparked much discussion. Some news from the media regarding the crypto market inspires confidence, though narratives around artificial intelligence and crypto still need to structure themselves more clearly. Big tech continues to move towards Web3, crypto, and DeFi, regardless of market conditions, which can be said to indicate potential. In the first week of May, the FED made its interest rate decision in line with expectations, raising rates by 25 basis points. Meanwhile, the market assumes that this may have been the last increase and a pause will take place.
Right in the middle instead of just there 🎉
We are now on Twitter! Follow us for the latest updates on the latest developments and trends in the crypto world. -> Twitter Account: CAM Schweiz AG - Research (@CAMSchweizAG).
Quote of the month from Eric Schmidt, former Google executive:
"Bitcoin is a remarkable cryptographic achievement.......
the ability to create something that cannot be duplicated has enormous value.
OPEC+ curbs oil production (02.04.2023)
OPEC+ announced it would cut oil production by about 1 million barrels per day starting in May to act preemptively and ease inflation concerns. The decision has raised U.S. Treasury bond yields and the U.S. dollar, as higher oil prices could make current interest rates less attractive. Some experts see the move as a reaction to a possible slowdown in the economy due to lower oil demand. Oil prices rose accordingly, while the impact on stocks and crypto is still unclear. In addition, more data on US industry and the labor market are due in the Easter week.(Source)
The interest rate hikes are gradually showing their effect (04/04/2023) On 03/04/2023, there were surprisingly sharp declines in the ISM purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing industry and in its inflation component in the USA. On 04/04/2023, job openings JOLTS were released, which came in more than half a million below expectations. Previously, bad news tended to be good news, because it was in the spirit of the Federal Reserve (FED) in the fight against inflation. These sharp declines point to a slowdown in inflation. Easing trends in the industrial sector could intensify into the summer.
Some central bank and inflation data suggest that the time for interest rate hikes may be over. The US stock market is currently pointing slightly lower, while most other cryptocurrencies are gaining and Bitcoin remains unchanged. It remains exciting to see if crypto can continue to decouple and how Bitcoin performs in the current situation with rising gold prices and a weaker US dollar.(Source)
Visa seeks crypto developers (04/25/2023)
Visa, the credit card and payment services provider, is on the lookout for experienced crypto developers to increase mainstream adoption. The head of crypto at Visa has announced that the company has big plans regarding crypto solutions and is therefore looking for suitably qualified people. The job descriptions call for, among other things, a deep understanding of Layer 1 and Layer 2 blockchains and hands-on experience programming smart contracts using the Solidity programming language. This was originally developed by the Ethereum team and is also used for smart contracts on Polkadot, Binance and other platforms. With these job offers, Visa confirms its February 2023 statement to further expand the crypto sector. Previously, there was speculation that Visa had discontinued its crypto plans, which should thus be considered disproven. It could be exciting to see how the movement of developers in this area develops.(Source | Source 2 | Source 3)
Shapella Upgrade to Ethereum (12.04.2023)
Ethereum's Shapella upgrade (combination of Shanghai and Capella) took place on 12/04/2023. Glassnode expects that there will be little selling pressure. Even if the maximum amount of premiums and deposits were sold, this would be within the average weekly exchange inflow volume. The first Ether was staked in November 2020, when the price was between USD 400 and 600. Most staked Ethers are underwater with the current price compared to the staking entry. Doesn't mean that these Ethers have negative performance overall, but only compared to when they were staked. Staked Ethers can only be withdrawn in a staggered manner, so not all at once. In addition, a distinction is made between partial withdrawals and full withdrawals. Bitcoin Suisse describes this most understandably, "...validators who wish to exit must enter a queue with limited batchwise unstaking per epoch."(source)
MiCA-Regulation adopted (20.04.2023)
The common framework must first be approved by the European Council before it becomes finally effective. It applies to all EU member states and includes rules for various aspects of the crypto sector. The framework will establish uniform rules for crypto service providers to ensure binding legal certainty for all market participants. According to EU representatives, the extensive document of 400 pages is primarily intended to ensure the safety of investors. However, regulations on topics such as decentralized financing (DeFi), lending and staking, and NFTs (non-fungible tokens) are currently still missing. Work is already underway to expand MiCA in this regard. It is expected that the individual provisions will be implemented between mid-2024 and early 2025.(Source)
Hong Kong authority on account openings (27.04.2023)
In recent weeks, Hong Kong, a special economic zone, has revealed its plans for crypto regulation. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has now called on local banks to work with regulated and licensed crypto companies. Their goal is to assist these companies in opening bank accounts. The authorities want regulated VASPs (Virtual Asset Service Providers) to be able to open traditional bank accounts in a proportionate manner. The city of Hong Kong has ambitions to establish itself as a hub for the growing industry. In this context, guidelines for a new licensing system for crypto exchanges and service providers have been announced. This is part of a larger plan to position Hong Kong as a crypto-friendly financial center, although the industry faces challenges in other jurisdictions and guidelines tend to become stricter. The Securities and Futures Commission plans to release its guidelines for the crypto exchange licensing system in May.
New global blockchain network (10.05.2023)
Digital Asset and leading market participants plan to launch the Canton Network, the industry's first interoperable blockchain network that enables data protection and is designed for institutional assets. The goal is to responsibly unleash the potential of synchronized financial markets. Major participants in the network include ASX, BNP Paribas, Capgemini, CBOE, Deloitte, Deutsche Börse Group, Goldman Sachs and Microsoft, Moody's and S&P Global. The Canton network provides a decentralized infrastructure that connects independent applications,
developed using Daml, Digital Asset's smart contract language. It creates a 'network of networks' that allows previously isolated systems in financial markets to interact with the governance, privacy, authorization and control mechanisms required for highly regulated industries. Financial institutions can operate in a secure environment without the need for reconciliation, where assets, data and cash can be freely synchronized between applications. This opens up new opportunities to develop innovative products and improves efficiency and risk management.
Did you know?
13 years ago, two pizzas were ordered for 10,000 Bitcoins. This particular day went down in Bitcoin history as Bitcoin Pizza Day . On May 22, 2010, a programmer named Laszlo Hanyecz exchanged two pizzas for 10'000 Bitcoins. At the time, these Bitcoins were worth about USD 41. Not even 0.01 USD per Bitcoin. According to today's exchange rate of USD 29'022, this therefore corresponds to USD 290 million. At that time, buying the pizzas was mainly an experiment to test what the new digital money could be worth and whether it was possible to buy real goods with it. Laszlo Hanyecz posted on the same "Bitcointalk.org" forum as Satoshi Nakamoto, asking if anyone would be willing to deliver pizzas to him in Florida in exchange for Bitcoin. After three days without success, Laszlo asked if really no one would buy him two pizzas and if 10,000 Bitcoins was too little. Finally, Jeremy Sturdivant, Bitcoin enthusiast and student took the deal. The two "Papa John's" pizzas were delivered, the Bitcoin transferred and Laszlo posted the photo of the dinner with his children as proof.
Jeremy, the 19-year-old student, spent his Bitcoins on a road trip with his girlfriend a few months later. At that point, one Bitcoin was already worth a dollar. Laszlo went on a few more pizza deals and spent a total of about 100,000 Bitcoins on pizzas. Laszlo as well as Jeremy stated in interviews that they don't regret spending that amount of Bitcoin. If anything, they are proud to be a part of the Bitcoin story.
This day has become an important event in the Bitcoin community, as it has helped to establish Bitcoin as a payment method with which it is possible to pay for real things.
Go eat a pizza with your loved ones or with your customers on Monday May 22, 2023, tell something about Bitcoin and shine with these facts. Pro-tip from us: pay for the pizzas with Swiss francs. En Guete!
More videos in the new short format
In this issue, a short summary of the CAM Switzerland AG booth at the financial fair in Zurich-Oerlikon. In addition, as usual: short, crisp and informative - our new short videos on the topic of cryptocurrencies offer the best from the crypto world. If you don't have time to watch long videos but still want to stay informed about the latest developments and trends in the cryptocurrency market, this is the ideal format. Another short video will be released on a regular basis.
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Market cycle
Even some renowned hedge fund managers and asset managers see a challenging market situation at the moment, which is characterized by uncertainties. While the FED predicts a mild recession, the further course for cryptocurrencies is even more unclear. However, the banking crisis could make Bitcoin attractive again as a refuge against the backdrop of further ones. In the past cycles, the period before the halvings was already a lucrative phase in each case and Bitcoin remained the frontrunner accordingly. Nevertheless, with increasing interest and new developments of the corresponding protocols, altcoins could quickly come into the focus of investors and record a corresponding increase. Ethereum has reached another milestone with a successful upgrade and Ether's staking yield could be a valuation benchmark for the entire crypto market. Fears that an excessive amount of ETH will be de-staked, which will then be sold, have not materialized so far. As current analyses, including the latest report from the well-known venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, show, developments in the crypto sector continue to progress regardless of the state of prices.
Etereum On-chain analysis
A metric that we have used in a previous issue and that currently provides us with interesting insights into the market is the accumulation value trend. This shows the buying or selling activity in different groups based on their balances. When the bar is blue, it means that the larger units or the majority of participants in the corresponding cohort are buying bitcoin. In a market decline, higher values tend to indicate a bottom is being found, as we saw in the FTX collapse. In the first quarter of 2023, profit-taking followed the initial price rises, followed by light buying periods, and finally accumulation by the larger units as prices fell back slightly. It is known that larger entities have a better understanding of the market, so their activities should be closely monitored.
Macro
U.S. companies have published their financial results in recent weeks, with a large proportion of these results exceeding expectations. Nevertheless, forecasts for the future have not necessarily become more optimistic. This could be due to a weakening of certain economic indicators, especially in the manufacturing sector. While large technology groups reported impressive results, some industrial companies also surprised positively. However, there were various challenges that prevented the U.S. markets from experiencing a stronger upswing. These include potential difficulties at smaller banks, concerns about business mortgages, more cautious lending practices, the increase in the U.S. debt ceiling, and fears of an impending recession. The economic future remains uncertain. An expected 0.25 percentage point rate hike occurred in early May. With regard to recession fears, it is advisable to keep an eye on the Philadelphia FED's indicator (Fig. 5), which has always provided reliable forecasts regarding economic downturns in the past. Given its current level, there could be an economic contraction.
Market Commentary
Although the markets are uncertain and there may be setbacks, being invested for the long term and broadly has paid off in the past. The way ahead for the crypto sector is difficult to gauge, but staying on the sidelines at this point in the cycle may result in the loss of key performance days. In terms of interest rates, according to current expectations, there is likely to be a lull for the next two meetings and then already likely a cut. The Anliehenmarkt expects a rate cut earlier than the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) currently represents. For stocks, the lulls have been mostly good so far, but the cuts have been rather bad. How this will affect cryptocurrencies, we don't know yet. More bad news from the banking sector and a reduction in the amount of money in circulation (M2 money supply) could cause problems. It is always interesting to see what happens when "everyone", that is, most people, expect the same thing; often things turn out quite differently. That the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is still higher than the average of the last 200 weeks and that the Bitcoin Hashrate (the computing power used to mine Bitcoins) continues to rise is good news.
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(*Information: bitcoin and Bitcoin: bitcoin lowercase is used in the crypto domain to denote the monetary unit. Bitcoin capitalized refers to the network as a whole. For simplicity, we use upper case in this newsletter).
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This communication/blog article/market update is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities, cryptocurrencies, fund shares, structured products, financial instruments or other investment products, nor shall it be deemed to constitute a solicitation of an offer to enter into a contract for any financial service, or otherwise constitute a personal recommendation. This communication/information cannot replace personal advice from a financial, legal and/or tax advisor.