CAM | Market Update | October 2023

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Crypto markets were more stable in September, a mostly quiet month, especially after the sharp drop in August. Bitcoin's trajectory shows that corresponding levels were targeted with higher liquidation volumes. For the U.S. economy, the picture is divided: Less spending on services and investments, strikes in the auto industry, possible continuation of student loan repayments, rising bond yields and mixed labor market data bring uncertainty to the markets. Many market participants are outlining scenarios about how inflation and interest rates might change in the future. The crypto space is showing concern about the growing debt of many countries, especially in the US.

A relevant part of this large debt burden, which will have to be refinanced in the next two years at higher interest rates, does pose a decent challenge. While many central banks have not raised their rates, interest rates on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds are the highest they have been since 2007. A major update to Ethereum could be delayed until early 2024, according to developers. This will involve plans to reduce the staking speed and add a new technique, the scaling approach Proto Danksharding. Moreover, in the crypto world: Binance is trying to dismiss an SEC indictment in court. And: it was announced that accounting rules for crypto assets in corporate balance sheets will be less disadvantageous in the future.

London Stock Exchange plans blockchain trading platform (04.09.23)

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) Group is planning a blockchain platform for trading traditional assets. According to its head of capital markets, the project aims to make settlement "smoother, smoother, cheaper and more transparent." However, the exchange is waiting until investors are ready and the technology of public blockchains is mature enough. In addition, he said, there is no development planned for cryptocurrencies. The platform would be the first of its kind among global exchanges.(Source | Source 2)

Bank weaknesses catalyst for bitcoin bull market (06.09.23)

Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, has predicted a bull market for Bitcoin at Korea Blockchain Week, which should become more apparent in the next 6-12 months. Hayes sees structural weaknesses in the banking system, exposed by emergency loans from central banks, as a catalyst for Bitcoin's rise. He remains optimistic about Bitcoin regardless of future monetary policy decisions by central banks.(Source)

New paradigm in crypto accounting (07.09.23).

The U.S. Accounting Standards Board has decided to introduce accounting rules that eliminate the adverse treatment of impairment losses on cryptocurrencies. This should make the reporting of companies holding crypto more in line with actual circumstances and therefore more accurate.(Source | Source 2)

Telegram introduces wallet function (13.09.23)

Telegram is introducing a crypto wallet called TON Space, which aims to integrate TON's own blockchain into the messenger service. The blockchain has a native token with the acronym TON (formerly Telegram open Network, now 'The Open Network'). However, these Web3 features will not be available globally in the US. Thus, up to 800 million Telegram users could use related services.(Source)

Uber competitor Grab launches Web3 services (09/14/2013)

Grab, which is considered an Uber competitor and super app from Southeast Asia, is launching Web3 services in Singapore in collaboration with USD Coin issuer Circle. Thanks to the app's built-in "Grab Web3 Wallet," which supports digital assets and smart contracts, eligible users will be able to set up blockchain-enabled wallets, earn rewards and collectibles, and use NFT vouchers. The Grab app is used for ridesharing, food delivery, and digital payments by over 180 million users in Southeast Asia.(Source)

Major Japanese bank launches BTC fund (19.09.23)

Laser Digital, the crypto arm of Japanese bank Nomura, is entering the asset management space with the "Bitcoin Adoption Fund." The fund is aimed at institutional investors and seeks "long-only" exposure to bitcoin. Registered with the Cayman Islands regulator, the fund is the first in a series of crypto products Laser Digital plans to launch. Komainu, a joint venture between Nomura, Ledger and CoinShares, will provide custody of the assets.(Source | Source 2)  

Court in China judges BTC (26.09.23)

The No. 2 Intermediate People's Court in Shanghai has recognized Bitcoin as a unique, non-replicable digital asset with inherent value and scarcity. According to a report released on Sept. 25, the court highlights Bitcoin's uniqueness compared to other digital currencies and emphasizes its currency-related characteristics. Despite China's blanket ban on cryptocurrencies, local courts support Bitcoin's recognition as legally protected personal property and could help legitimize it.(Source)

SEC moves ETF filings ahead of schedule (09/27/2013)

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has again postponed the decision deadline for ARK Invest's and Global X's Bitcoin Spot ETFs, although the previous deadlines had not yet been reached. While ARK Invest must wait until January 10, 2024 for a final decision, Global X was extended until November 21, 2023. Explosively, immediately before the deadline extension, four U.S. parliamentarians called on the SEC to approve the Bitcoin ETFs, highlighting the August court decision in favor of Grayscale.(Source)

Interoperability through Base on Ethereum (09/27/2013)

Chainlink has launched the Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) on Base, a scalable Layer 2 blockchain developed by Coinbase and backed by Ethereum. CCIP enables developers to securely and easily create cross-border applications and services and promotes interoperability between different blockchains. (Source)

SEC also delays Ethereum ETFs (9/28-23).

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed its decision on whether to approve Ethereum ETF applications from VanEck and 21Shares until the end of 2023. The delay follows the SEC's recent announcement that it will delay its decision on a bitcoin ETF until 2024.(Source)

SEC Chief Gary Gensler under pressure (09/28/2013)

SEC chief Gary Gensler is under pressure for failing to provide documents requested by the U.S. Congress. The focus is on crypto regulations and the relationship with crypto exchange FTX. Congress is threatening legal action, while political tensions between Republicans and Democrats continue. A potential U.S. shutdown could severely impact the SEC.(Source)

ETH Futures ETFs confirmed (09/29-23)

The SEC has approved the first Ethereum futures ETFs ahead of the looming U.S. government shutdown. Products from VanEck, Valkyrie and ProShares are expected to hit the market as early as Monday. Although futures ETFs do not directly buy Ethereum, the Ethereum price has responded positively. Large marketing efforts by financial institutions could increase crypto awareness and attract new investors.(Source)

Delay of More Bitcoin Spot ETFs (09/29-23).

The SEC has postponed decisions on bitcoin spot ETF applications from companies such as BlackRock due to concerns and a possible government shutdown. Concerns include market manipulation, liquidity and transparency. A final decision must be made by mid-March.

(Source)

FTX Founder Bankman-Fried calculated fraudster (05.10.23)

Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX, is on trial in Manhattan, where prosecutors are calling him a fraudster. According to prosecutor Nathan Rehn, he allegedly personally enriched himself from FTX customers' deposits and stole billions of dollars from thousands of victims. His defense attorney, Mark Cohen, insists, however, that Bankman-Fried had no fraudulent intent and committed no theft. If found guilty, he could face up to 115 years in prison.(Source)

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis

In the context of halving in spring 2024, the question for many is to what extent the fee income for miners will be sufficient to compensate for the reduced distributions. This is difficult to estimate, but activity on the network should continue to grow over time. In addition, a rising trend in the price of Bitcoin and also decreasing electricity costs due to decrease in production peaks, positively contribute to the profitability of mining companies. More efficient hardware also has an optimizing effect on revenues. The share of fee revenues in total revenues has risen above their typical bear market level from 1% to 4%, and annual fees measured in fiat are growing accordingly (Fig. 1).

InvestorWeek 2023

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Did you know...? 

that the basic ideabehind Bitcoin originated well before 2009? The fascinating world of Bitcoin and blockchain technology has gained immense popularity in recent years. However, the idea behind Bitcoin didn't just appear out of nowhere in 2009. Instead, there is a rich history of thought leaders and pioneers who paved the way for Satoshi Nakamoto's revolutionary invention.

David Chaum and "e-Cash/Digicash" (1989): David Chaum, often considered the godfather of cryptography, created "e-Cash" in the early 1990s. This digital currency was one of the first attempts to provide anonymity and privacy in the digital payment world. While "e-Cash" did not gain the widespread acceptance it deserved, it laid the foundation for the importance of privacy in digital payments.

Nick Szabo and "Bit Gold" (1998): Long before Bitcoin, Nick Szabo envisioned a decentralized digital currency called "Bit Gold." Although "Bit Gold" was never fully realized, it was a crucial step towards the creation of a digital currency without a central authority. Szabo's concept was built on a decentralized verification system similar to Bitcoin's proof-of-work mechanics today.

Wei Dai and "B-Money" (1998): During the same time that Nick Szabo was experimenting with Bit Gold, Wei Dai published a white paper on "B-Money." Dai's vision of an anonymous, distributed electronic form of money undeniably influenced the development of Bitcoin. "B-Money" proposed a mechanism in which servers would log transactions and distribute the amount of money over a

The emergence of Bitcoin is the product of decades of research, experimentation, and continuous improvement by numerous crypto enthusiasts and security experts. As we honor the importance of Bitcoin today, we should also remember the pioneers who paved the way. And for those who look closely at the "Bitcoin Prehistory" graphic: The likelihood that Satoshi's real name is represented there seems significantly greater than the chance that it is missing. Who knows? Maybe one of the pioneers mentioned has more to do with Bitcoin than we think!

Market Commentary

Recent media reports debate the positive impact of bitcoin halving on the bitcoin price in light of a possible recession. The fact is that halving bitcoin inflation reduces potential sales by miners and a spot ETF should increase demand at the latest in the medium term. For now, the recent rise in bond yields and a strong U.S. dollar could still be headwinds for risk assets. There are concerns that cryptocurrencies will not rise in the current environment without central bank liquidity. There are some voices in the market that tend to suggest that the impact of the Bitcoin Spot ETF may be underestimated, although the topic has been much discussed and is present. Many believe that several Spot ETFs will be approved at the same time to ensure a fair playing field in the race for investment funds. On the other hand, see

some BlackRock with its resources and influence at an advantage after all, although it could probably be difficult to justify a corresponding favoritism. Competition between large ETF providers is expected, and marketing could focus on financial advisors, where most of the investable capital resides. Some clients may choose to invest in crypto based on recommendations from their advisors. It also makes bitcoin investing easier for companies and less of an accounting disadvantage. There are no known gold futures ETFs, which could also be an indication for Bitcoin that only a spot ETF will attract the more relevant sums. There is also positive news for Ethereum, with an adjusted valuation methodology for Metcalfe's Law determining a fair value of around USD 275 bn.

Deepen your understanding of cryptocurrencies

Entertaining and informative. Our Youtube videos on cryptocurrencies offer versatile insights into the crypto world. If you have a small time budget, but a need to quench your thirst for knowledge and broaden your horizons, this is the ideal format.

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A significant proportion of our customers have a voluntary uncommitted investment plan, which enables them to pursue a long-term average cost strategy. In case of lower market prices, the cost prices can thus be reduced. To check your individual suitability for an investment plan, please contact us if you are interested.

(*Information: bitcoin and Bitcoin: bitcoin lowercase is used in the crypto domain to denote the monetary unit. Bitcoin capitalized refers to the network as a whole. For simplicity, we use upper case in this newsletter).

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